Domain 05
Politics and Voting
Short horizons, visible concessions and delegated power make politics a compound of commitment, chicken and principal–agent problems.
The short horizon is the deepest structural fact: any reform whose costs land now and whose benefits land after the next election is systematically under-supplied, and that is a prediction about the arrangement rather than a claim about character. Budget stand-offs are chicken with an audience, which is why they run past the point of sense. Reform is frequently a stag hunt — widely privately supported, never introduced, because the first mover absorbs the entire attack. And constitutional limits are pure commitment devices: their whole function is to stop a future government doing what it will badly want to do.
Everyone who does not vote, is not yet old enough to, or is not yet born — the people who will carry the cost of the horizon problem and have no move at all. Also the officials who must implement the policy, whose non-cooperation can nullify a decision without anybody voting against it.
What to look for
- Whose term ends before the consequences arrive?
- Is this a real position or a position that cannot be reversed in public?
- Who has to implement this, and were they in the room?
- Is the reform unpopular, or merely unfirst — would many support it if someone went first?
The shapes that run this field
Chicken
Two equilibria, both lopsided: one side concedes and the other does not. No dominant move.
Shape 11Commitment
Removing your own option raises your payoff, because it changes what the other side's best response is.
Shape 14Principal and Agent
A delegated task with unobservable effort and imperfectly aligned interests.
Shape 03The Stag Hunt
Mutual cooperation is the best outcome for everyone, but it is risky — and the safe option is available unilaterally.
Shape 04Pure Coordination
Multiple equilibria, no conflict of interest — the whole problem is agreeing which one.
In practice
Chicken
A shutdown that damages both parties more than conceding would, running because conceding is visible.
The Stag Hunt
A reform most legislators privately support and none will introduce alone.
Commitment
An independent central bank: the point is that the people who would be tempted cannot reach the lever.